Welcome to my academic portfolio. I am Emma McBryde, an academic with a focus on infectious diseases modelling. I have diverse cross-disciplinary skills, as an infectious diseases physician (FRACP) and mathematical modeler (PhD -QUT), epidemiologist, and biostatistician (MBios Uni Melb). Since 2003, I have worked on interleaving clinical research with mathematical modeling and simulation of infectious diseases transmission. In this time, I have developed the ability to communicate and collaborate across the disciplines of mathematics, biostatistics, epidemiology, public health and clinical infectious diseases. My research focus encompasses a broad range of methods – Bayesian Inference, statistical models, compartmental models, stochastic models, social network analysis, forecasting methods- and a broad interest in emerging pathogens –tuberculosis, influenza and hospital associated pathogens and emerging infectious diseases including SARS, Ebola and COVID-19. I have led research teams to complete international consultancies (modeling of tuberculosis control in our region) and international research collaborations (in the area of tuberculosis, healthcare associated infections SARS and Ebola and COVID-19). I am currently the Professor of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology at the Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, JCU and lead physician for the TB control unit at the Torres Strait and Cape York Health Service. My collaborators across Australia include Centres for Research excellence in modelling for public health decision support and in tuberculosis. and I work with researchers in major national (Monash University, Australian National University, Curtin University and the Doherty Institute, UWA, UQ) and international universities (Imperial College, LSHTM, Harvard, Stanford, Oxford, Mahidol). She leads a team of highly skilled mathematicians and biostatisticians, epidemiologists. COVID-19 work to date includes providing modelling and advice for: the commonwealth Government, Victorian State Government, OzSage Indigenous working group, and leading the AUS-CMI Australian Covid-19 modelling initiative group, the Global Fund against Malaria TB and AIDS, and the World Health Organization in conjunction with countries in the Asia Pacific Regions. My major methodlogical areas of research in active development are (1) forecasting (2) scenario analysis for decision support (3) data analysis including Bayesian inference and machine learning. Here you will find information about my projects and research.
My team has worked for many years on developing decision support tools for tuberculosis. These tools have underlying mechanistic disease transmission models which can be fit and parameterised to populations for example different countries or sub-national populations. They provide insight into the disease transmission of a country or region and the number of missing cases. They can also be used to compare different interventions both from a cost point of view and an effectiveness over different time scales. For example, would additional spending be better directed to improving drug resistance detection or improving treatment of latent TB infection.
Learn moreIn the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, rapid assessments of risk of importation of COVID-19 through air travel needed to be made. Fortunately, we had access to country-level flight travel data and used a mechanistic model of COVDI-19 transmission layered on a passenger volume database using passenger numbers from the same month the year earlier. This way we were able to estimate risk of importantion of COVID-19 infected people by country assuming no change to passenger volumes and compare this with risk assuming passenger restrictions.
Learn moreYou can reach me at emma.mcbryde@uq.edu.au.